A Closer Look: The Changing Demographics of Phillips County Voters

 For the Holyoke Enterprise 

Presidential election years can inspire a higher participation in the electoral process as the voting public weighs public policy considerations and determines if they favor or oppose party platforms and candidates. 

On January 1 of this year, there were 2,777 active voters registered in Phillips County. Among them, unaffiliated voters exceeded one thousand for the first time at 1,008. In examining trends since the 2016 presidential election year, that’s up 64%. 

An unaffiliated voter is sometimes referred to as an Independent, although Colorado does not use that term. Independents are not a political party and should not be confused with political parties that use Independent or Independence in their name. A Wikipedia encyclopedia description states that, “An Independent voter, often also called an unaffiliated voter or non-affiliated voter in the United States, is a voter who does not align themselves with a political party. An independent is variously defined as a voter who votes for candidates on issues rather than on the basis of a political ideology or partisanship; a voter who does not have long-standing loyalty, or identification with, a political party; a voter who does not usually vote for the same political party from election to election; or a voter who self-describes as an independent.” Wikipedia further states that “Gallup polls data shows that independent leaning voters represent the majority of American voters, a trend since 2004.” 

Republicans in the county still held the majority of active voters at 1,437, a 9% decrease from a high of 1,577 in 2017. Democrats, at 299, is a decrease of 30% from a high of 430 in 2017. 

Minor party affiliations, although only 1% of active county voters, have also increased in recent years. On January 1, 33 county active voters were registered with four of the then seven recognized minor parties. This included 18 Libertarian, 7 American Constitution, 5 Green, and 3 No Labels. The 33 total is up from 18 in 2020, doubling the count of 9 on January 1, 2016. 

When looking at the inactive status for all January 1 county registered voters, the unaffiliates were the highest at 14%. Democrats and Libertarians followed at 10% each with Republicans at 7% inactive. Two inactive Libertarians accounted for the only minor parties’ inactive status. 

An “active voter” is a registered voter who has a record of voting in the past three years per the County Clerk’s rolls. 

The “inactive” status is used if mailed correspondence from the County Clerk to a registered elector is returned as undeliverable. The Clerk will attempt to confirm or correct the address. County Clerk Beth Zilla shared that Colorado Revised Statutes prescribe how to manage registrations. C.R.S. 1-2-605(3) provides that “any registered elector whose registration record is marked “inactive” is eligible to vote in any election where registration is required if the elector meets all other requirements.” Paragraph (4) provides for a return to an active status if “the elector updates their registration information; or votes in an election conducted by the county clerk and recorder or an election for which the registration information has been provided to the clerk and recorder; or the elector completes signs and returns a confirmation card or change of address card.” 

Colorado allows eligible voters to preregister beginning at age 16 even though they cannot vote until age 18. 

 unaffiliated active voters also represents a growth in their share of total active voters registered that decreases the share held by the major political parties. Staying with January 1 counts and the presidential election years, this year county unaffiliated registered voters represented 36% of all active voters, up from 29% in 2020. Republicans represented 52%, a decrease from 57% in 2020. Democrats represented 11%, a decrease from 13% in 2020. Minor parties, combined, stayed at 1% from 2020. 

The upward trend of county unaffiliated electors is consistent with state trends. According to January 1 voter registration data made available from the Colorado Secretary of State’s Office, there were over 1.8 million unaffiliated active registered voters in Colorado. This almost equals the 1.9+ million Democratic and Republican active registered voters combined. 

Gallup polling monitors party affiliation nationally on a monthly basis. On January 2, 2024, 45% polled identified as Independent, 27% as Democrat and 25% as Republican. Independents were asked, “Do you lean more to the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?” Democratic “leaners” were 46%. Republicans were 43%. 

One might wonder how Phillips County unaffiliated voters lean. Most recently, county results of the March 5 presidential primary election offer a clue. From registration record information provided by the County Clerk’s office, 384 unaffiliates, or 37% of the total registered at that time, returned one of the two major party ballots received. Within that 37%, 334 (87%) returned the Republican ballot and 50 (13%) returned the Democratic ballot. For whom any elector votes is not tracked so it cannot be determined how anyone voted across all candidates on the ballot. 

Provided that all unaffiliated returned ballots were voted, the 334 voting for a Republican president were 26% of the Republican votes cast. The 50 voting for a Democratic president were 31% of the Democratic votes cast. 

One might wonder if party affiliation is influenced by ages or generations or if major political parties will decline in membership as older members decline and younger members choose to join, or not. The data alone cannot predict the future trajectory unless more research is conducted. Per the January 1 counts, the Phillips County Democratic and Republican parties each had almost exactly half as many people registered for ages <18 to 44 as they did for ages 45 to 75+. Democrats’ ratio was 109 to 225. Republicans were 518 to 1,034. Unaffiliates had more registered for ages <18 to 44 as for ages 45 to 75+ at 615 to 559. Likewise, the four aforementioned minor parties, combined, had 24 registrations for <18 to 44 and 11 registrations for ages 45 to 75+. 

Preregistrations for people under the age of 18 had unaffiliates outnumbering Republicans 2 to 1 at 22 to 11, respectively. There were no preregistrations for other parties on January 1. 

Prior to the passage of Proposition 108 in 2016, unaffiliated voters in Colorado had to choose to affiliate with a party on Election Day in order to vote in that party’s primary election for county, state, and federal offices. Prop 108 amended state statutes to allow unaffiliated voters to vote in the primary election of a major political party without having to declare affiliation with that party. It also permitted a political party, in some circumstances, to select candidates by committee or convention rather than through a primary election. 

Statewide, Prop 108 passed 53% to 47%. In Phillips County, it failed 1,431 (64%) to 790 (36%). On November 1 of 2016, active voter registrations were 1,574 Republican, 431 Democratic, and 673 unaffiliated. 

Voter registration counts can fluctuate slightly on a daily basis as people register, change affiliations, move out of county and reregister with the new county of residence, etc. 

Monthly counts statewide, and on a county-by-county basis, can be obtained in downloadable Excel files from the Colorado Secretary of State’s Office: www.sos. state.co.us/pubs/elections/ VoterRegNumbers/VoterRegNumbers.html. 

Colorado’s primary election is June 25.